New York Mets at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Bo BichetteBatting4-4, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bichette hit sacrifice fly to left, Torrens scored.7–1
- 5Melendez doubled to right, Ewing scored, Melendez to third.6–1
- 4Young doubled to right, Soto scored.5–1
- 4Mariners challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Juan Soto steals (6) 2nd base. Carson Benge steals (10) home.4–1
- 4Benge stole home, Soto stole second.4–1
- 4Bichette singled to center, Melendez scored and Torrens scored, Benge to second.3–1
- 1Crawford homered to right center (409 feet).1–1
- 1Young grounded into fielder's choice to first, Bichette scored on error, Soto safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Naylor.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 56%
- ML NYM +119 / SEA -144
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 58.1%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -129
- NYM +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.2 – 3.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −1 | NYM: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +56 Elo | SEA 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 25th of 3011–20 | Road vs home | 19–1510th of 30 |
| 30th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 30 |
| 17th of 301489 | Elo rating | 15295th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–34 | 26–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–23 | 19–33 |
| Underdog | 10–11 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 26–29–6 | 27–32–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 4–7 SEA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.