New York Mets at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jared YoungBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Josh NaylorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Young singled to left, Arozarena scored.2–3
- 7Naylor homered to right (373 feet).2–2
- 6Semien homered to left (389 feet).2–1
- 5Young homered to center (424 feet).1–1
- 3Emerson homered to right (368 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML NYM +105 / SEA -126
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 57.2%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- NYM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.4 – 3.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −2 | NYM: Austin Warren (no track record yet) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +51 Elo | SEA 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–18 | Road vs home | 17–1516th of 30 |
| 30th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 30 |
| 17th of 301493 | Elo rating | 15265th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–33 | 25–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–23 | 18–32 |
| Underdog | 9–10 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 25–28–6 | 26–31–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 4–5 SEA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.