New York Mets at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Carson BengeBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jonah TongPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Jhonny PeredaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rodríguez homered to left center (396 feet).3–8
- 6Benge homered to center (399 feet).3–7
- 5Pereda homered to left center (388 feet), Young scored and Canzone scored.2–7
- 4Rodríguez hit sacrifice fly to left, Wisdom scored.2–4
- 3Arozarena scored on error, Raley safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Vientos, Raley safe at second on error.2–3
- 3Benge homered to right center (394 feet), Ewing scored.2–2
- 2Wisdom homered to left center (429 feet), Canzone scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML NYM +124 / SEA -149
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 57.5%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -134
- NYM +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.4 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +9 | NYM: Huascar Brazoban: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +53 Elo | SEA 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 24th of 3011–19 | Road vs home | 18–1513th of 30 |
| 30th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301492 | Elo rating | 15275th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–33 | 25–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–23 | 18–33 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 25–29–6 | 26–32–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 4–6 SEA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.