New York Mets at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Luis TorrensBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-4
- Michael KingPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baty singled to right, Ewing scored.5–0
- 5Torrens homered to center (413 feet), Baty scored.4–0
- 3Bichette tripled to right, Torrens scored.2–0
- 2Young homered to right center (422 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 54%
- ML NYM +108 / SD -131
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- SD: Elo 55.1%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -118
- NYM +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.3 – 3.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −6 | NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +35 Elo | SD 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 25th of 3012–20 | Road vs home | 16–1620th of 30 |
| 30th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 149326th of 30 |
| 16th of 301493 | Elo rating | 151310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–34 | 30–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–23 | 12–20 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 27–29–6 | 24–35–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 10–9 SD in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.