San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Bohm grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Harper scored, Marsh out at second.2–3
- 4Harper homered to center (419 feet), Turner scored.2–2
- 3Sheets homered to right (362 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 58%
- ML SD +128 / PHI -154
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 50.6%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -138
- SD +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.6 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −12 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +4 Elo | PHI 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3015–9 | Road vs home | 14–1623rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 9th of 301516 | Elo rating | 15217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–30 | 23–36 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–20 | 13–27 |
| Underdog | 16–10 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 23–33–2 | 25–32–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 6–16 PHI in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.