San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Ty FranceBatting2-4
- Walker BuehlerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bogaerts hit by pitch, Tatis Jr. scored, Sheets to second, Andujar to third.2–3
- 7Schwarber homered to right center (391 feet).1–3
- 7Realmuto homered to left center (422 feet).1–2
- 7Merrill singled to left, France scored.1–1
- 5García doubled to center, Stott scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 67%
- ML SD +194 / PHI -239
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.5%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -207
- SD +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.2 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +18 | SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +45 Elo | PHI 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 63.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 5th of 3015–10 | Road vs home | 15–1621st of 30 |
| 27th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 10th of 301515 | Elo rating | 15227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–30 | 23–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–20 | 13–28 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 23–34–2 | 25–33–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 6–17 PHI in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.