San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Adolis GarciaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Merrill homered to right center (416 feet), France scored.4–6
- 7Bohm singled to center, Harper scored, Marsh to second.2–6
- 7Marsh grounded into fielder's choice to first, Turner scored, Harper to second.2–5
- 7Turner singled to right, Crawford scored.2–4
- 7Machado homered to left center (435 feet), Sheets scored.2–3
- 5Crawford scored on pickoff error by pitcher Matsui, Turner picked off third.0–3
- 5Crawford scored on pickoff error by pitcher Matsui, Turner picked off third.0–3
- 5García homered to left center (429 feet).0–2
- 4Stott singled to left, Harper scored, Marsh to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 66%
- ML SD +178 / PHI -219
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.0%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -191
- SD +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.5 – 5.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +15 | SD: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +35 Elo | PHI 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 6th of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 16–1617th of 30 |
| 27th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 9th of 301514 | Elo rating | 15237th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–30 | 23–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–20 | 13–29 |
| Underdog | 18–10 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 23–35–2 | 25–34–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 6–18 PHI in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.