Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Coby MayoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Taveras singled to right, Alonso scored, Alexander to third.6–5
- 10Arozarena homered to right (360 feet), Rodríguez scored.6–4
- 9Basallo grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Jackson scored, O'Neill third.4–4
- 9Mayo homered to left center (422 feet).4–3
- 7Mayo scored on Hoppe wild pitch.4–2
- 7Mayo scored on Hoppe wild pitch.4–2
- 7Arozarena singled to left, Robles scored, Rodríguez to second.4–1
- 4Garver homered to left (406 feet), Arozarena scored and Refsnyder scored.3–1
- 1Taveras hit sacrifice fly to center, Ward scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML SEA -120 / BAL -101
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.7%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- BAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −9 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +39 Elo | SEA 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 12th of 3016–16 | Road vs home | 19–1613th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 6th of 301526 | Elo rating | 148719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–38 | 31–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–34 | 16–18 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders | 30–34–3 | 37–27–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 6–13 BAL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 19.