Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting1-3
- Keider MonteroPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 4Canzone homered to center (451 feet).4–0
- 3Arozarena doubled to right, Naylor scored and Rodríguez scored. Detroit Tigers challenged call on the field was upheld3–0
- 2Canzone doubled to center, Arozarena scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML SEA -126 / DET +104
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.6 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −3 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +21 Elo | SEA 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 15th of 3014–15 | Road vs home | 15–1418th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 6th of 301523 | Elo rating | 148720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–38 | 30–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–34 | 12–22 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 18–12 |
| Overs–unders | 29–32–3 | 28–32–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 11–13 DET in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 24.
- Jun 5SEA 3 @ DET 7Picked SEA 52%Miss
- Oct 10DET 2 @ SEA 3PlayoffsPicked DET 52%Miss
- Oct 8SEA 3 @ DET 9PlayoffsPicked DET 50%Hit
- Oct 7SEA 8 @ DET 4PlayoffsPicked SEA 55%Hit
- Oct 5DET 2 @ SEA 3PlayoffsPicked DET 58%Miss
- Oct 4DET 3 @ SEA 2PlayoffsPicked SEA 63%Miss
- Jul 13SEA 8 @ DET 4Picked SEA 51%Hit
- Jul 12SEA 15 @ DET 7Picked DET 50%Miss