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Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, Tigers.TV, Mariners.TV

Away

Mariners

33-31

3–7

at

Home

Tigers

26-38

SEA 52%DET 48%

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Comerica Park · MLB.TV, Tigers.TV, Mariners.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.

DET75%50%75%SEAStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Mariners
  • Colt EmersonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Bryan WooPitching6.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Tigers
  • Kerry CarpenterBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Framber ValdezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Torkelson homered to left (389 feet), Greene scored.3–7
  • 8Garver singled to right, Naylor scored.3–5
  • 7Torres doubled to right, Keith scored and McKinstry scored, Short to third.2–5
  • 7Emerson homered to left (351 feet).2–3
  • 3Carpenter homered to right (347 feet), Dingler scored.1–3
  • 3Dingler hit into fielder's choice to center, Torres scored, McGonigle out at second.1–1
  • 1Refsnyder singled to right, Crawford scored, Rodríguez to second.1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Mariners 52%

Toss-upMiss
SEA 52%DET 48%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
SEA 52%
ML SEA -120 / DET -101
Pre-line forecast
SEA 53%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
SEA 56%
Ratings vs. market
+3.6 pts
SEA: Elo 55.6%, market 52.1%
Fair odds
SEA -109
DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
SEA 3.8 – 3.7 DET
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorSEADETWhy
Team rating15261484Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+6−9SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsSEA +39 EloSEA 55.6%
Market-implied ratingsSEA 52.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastSEA 52.6%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastSEA 52.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers compared, with each team's league rank
SEAStatDET
20th of 304.2Runs scored3.927th of 30
5th of 303.8Runs allowed4.313th of 30
6th of 30+0.5Margin−0.421st of 30
1st of 308–2Last 105–511th of 30
15th of 3014–14Road vs home14–1418th of 30
23rd of 301496Opponent Elo149915th of 30
5th of 301526Elo rating148421st of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MarinersTigers
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonSEADET
Run line26–3729–34
Last 105–57–3
Favorite19–3411–22
Underdog7–318–12
Overs–unders28–32–327–32–4
Overs–unders, last 106–44–5–1

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

SEA 11–12 DET in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 23.