Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer MilesPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Alexander homered to left center (386 feet).4–6
- 6Alonso homered to right center (421 feet), Henderson scored.3–6
- 5Valenzuela hit sacrifice fly to right, Clement scored.1–6
- 3Giménez singled to right, Valenzuela scored, Okamoto thrown out at third.1–5
- 3Clement homered to left (367 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored and Sánchez scored.1–4
- 2Okamoto singled to left, Clement scored, Valenzuela to third.1–1
- 2Cowser homered to right center (427 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML BAL -105 / TOR -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +2 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Braydon Fisher: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +34 Elo | TOR 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–18 | Road vs home | 17–1411th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301491 | Elo rating | 15139th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–33 | 33–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–18 | 13–21 |
| Underdog | 15–15 | 20–10 |
| Overs–unders | 35–26–3 | 31–30–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 26–18 TOR in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 44.