Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Taylor WardBatting3-4
- Chris BassittPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Payton TollePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rutschman tripled to right, Ward scored.1–8
- 5Rafaela reached on infield single to first, Durbin scored.0–8
- 5Durbin doubled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored.0–7
- 5Kiner-Falefa doubled to left, Gasper scored.0–6
- 5Gasper tripled to right, Contreras scored and Yoshida scored.0–5
- 3Abreu homered to right (398 feet), Durbin scored.0–3
- 1Abreu singled to left, Duran scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 58%
- ML BAL +130 / BOS -157
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.9%, market 58.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -141
- BAL +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.9 – 4.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −20 | BAL: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.99 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +27 Elo | BOS 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.113th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–17 | Road vs home | 9–2030th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15058th of 30 |
| 19th of 301487 | Elo rating | 151112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–32 | 25–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–18 | 11–24 |
| Underdog | 13–14 | 14–10 |
| Overs–unders | 33–25–3 | 27–30–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 22–21 BOS in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 43.