Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Marcelo MayerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Chase DeLauterBatting2-4
- Slade CecconiPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Duran hit sacrifice fly to center, Mayer scored.3–4
- 5Durbin doubled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored, Mayer to third.2–4
- 5Mayer singled to center, Gasper scored, Kiner-Falefa to third.1–4
- 1Bailey hit sacrifice fly to right, Manzardo scored, Schneemann to second, Martínez to third.0–4
- 1Martínez singled to center, DeLauter scored and Hoskins scored on fielding error by center fielder Rafaela, Manzardo to second.0–3
- 1Hoskins singled to left, Ramírez scored, DeLauter to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML BOS +104 / CLE -126
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.9 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −12 | BOS: Tyler Samaniego (no track record yet) · CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +24 Elo | CLE 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 11th of 3014–13 | Road vs home | 16–129th of 30 |
| 6th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 13th of 301508 | Elo rating | 151910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–33 | 30–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–23 | 13–17 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 25–28–2 | 28–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 9–10 CLE in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.