Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Travis BazzanaBatting2-4
- Parker MessickPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran homered to right (371 feet), Yoshida scored and Wong scored.9–1
- 9Wong singled to left, Contreras scored and Mayer scored, Wong to second, Yoshida to second, Yoshida safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Fairchild.6–1
- 9Yoshida walked, Abreu scored, Mayer to second, Contreras to third.4–1
- 8Durbin doubled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored.3–1
- 6Wong doubled to left, Mayer scored. challenged call on the field was overturned2–1
- 4Durbin hit sacrifice fly to left, Monasterio scored.1–1
- 1Ramírez doubled to right, Bazzana scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 54%
- ML BOS +109 / CLE -131
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.4%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.1 – 3.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +9 | BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +38 Elo | CLE 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.29th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 14th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 17–129th of 30 |
| 7th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 13th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15208th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–33 | 30–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–23 | 13–18 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 25–29–2 | 28–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 9–11 CLE in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.