Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Guardians- Chase DeLauterBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Durbin tripled to right, Yoshida scored and Kiner-Falefa scored.9–4
- 7Kiner-Falefa singled to center, Abreu scored, Yoshida to second.7–4
- 7Yoshida singled to center, Duran scored and Narváez scored, Abreu to third.6–4
- 7Abreu walked, Wong scored, Duran to second, Narváez to third.4–4
- 5DeLauter singled to left, Ramírez scored.3–4
- 5Ramírez doubled to left, Rocchio scored.3–3
- 5Abreu singled to left, Wong scored, Abreu thrown out at second, Duran to third.3–2
- 5Gasper hit sacrifice fly to left, Mayer scored.2–2
- 2Hedges singled to right, Fry scored and Hoskins scored, Manzardo to third.1–2
- 1Duran homered to right (402 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML BOS -105 / CLE -114
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 51.1%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.5 – 3.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −12 | BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +8 Elo | CLE 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 12th of 3015–14 | Road vs home | 17–139th of 30 |
| 7th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 13th of 301510 | Elo rating | 151610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–33 | 30–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–23 | 13–19 |
| Underdog | 13–10 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 26–29–2 | 29–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 10–11 CLE in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.