Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane BazPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting2-4
- Connelly EarlyPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Mayer hit sacrifice fly to center, Gasper scored.4–2
- 4Alexander hit sacrifice fly to right, O'Neill scored.4–1
- 3Alonso homered to left (400 feet), Rutschman scored.3–1
- 2Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was overturned: Coby Mayo homers (364 feet) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
- 1Abreu hit sacrifice fly to center, Duran scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML BAL +113 / BOS -136
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -123
- BAL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.0 – 4.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +12 | BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Connelly Early: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +52 Elo | BOS 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–17 | Road vs home | 9–1930th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15067th of 30 |
| 20th of 301485 | Elo rating | 151312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–32 | 25–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–18 | 11–23 |
| Underdog | 12–14 | 14–10 |
| Overs–unders | 33–24–3 | 27–29–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 21–21 BOS in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 42.