Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting4-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Brandon ValenzuelaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trey YesavagePitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alonso scored on error and Rutschman scored, Taveras safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Okamoto, Cowser safe at third on error.13–3
- 9Rutschman doubled to center, Henderson scored and Ward scored.11–3
- 8Taveras grounded out to pitcher, Mayo scored, Cowser to second.9–3
- 8Cowser singled to center, Jackson scored, Mayo to third.8–3
- 8Jackson singled to center, Rutschman scored, Alonso to second.7–3
- 6Mayo homered to left (396 feet), Jackson scored.6–3
- 6Jackson singled to center, Rutschman scored.4–3
- 6Rutschman doubled to center, Henderson scored and Holliday scored.3–3
- 5Valenzuela homered to right center (417 feet), Okamoto scored.1–3
- 1Guerrero Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Springer scored.1–1
- 1Rutschman homered to center (404 feet). challenged call on the field was upheld1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 58%
- ML BAL +128 / TOR -154
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.4%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -138
- BAL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.9 – 4.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +2 | BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +45 Elo | TOR 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 3011–18 | Road vs home | 17–139th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301487 | Elo rating | 15178th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–33 | 33–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–18 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 14–15 | 20–10 |
| Overs–unders | 34–26–3 | 30–30–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 25–18 TOR in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 43.