Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Taylor WardBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras homered to left (403 feet).8–2
- 6Contreras singled to left, Rafaela scored, Abreu to second.8–1
- 5Cowser hit sacrifice fly to right, Basallo scored.8–0
- 5Basallo doubled to right, Alonso scored.7–0
- 1Ward singled to center, Mayo scored, Holliday to second.6–0
- 1Mayo doubled to left, Basallo scored, Cowser scored and Taveras scored.5–0
- 1Taveras singled to right, Henderson scored, Basallo to third.2–0
- 1Rutschman singled to center, Ward scored, Henderson to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML BAL +104 / BOS -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.5%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -113
- BAL +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.1 – 5.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −23 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 1.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +38 Elo | BOS 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 25th of 3010–18 | Road vs home | 10–2030th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15057th of 30 |
| 21st of 301484 | Elo rating | 151410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–33 | 26–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–18 | 12–24 |
| Underdog | 13–15 | 14–10 |
| Overs–unders | 34–25–3 | 28–30–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 22–22 BOS in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 44.