Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Josh NaylorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Blaze AlexanderBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Trey GibsonPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alexander singled to left, Taveras scored, Holliday to third.6–3
- 8Arozarena singled to right, Naylor scored.6–2
- 7Mayo scored on Brash wild pitch, Alexander to third on wild pitch by Brash.5–2
- 7Mayo scored on Brash wild pitch, Alexander to third on wild pitch by Brash.5–2
- 5Naylor homered to right (358 feet), Pereda scored, Young scored and Rodríguez scored.5–1
- 5Bliss hit sacrifice fly to center, Canzone scored.1–1
- 3Alonso hit sacrifice fly to center, Alexander scored, Henderson to second, Ward to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML SEA -126 / BAL +104
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.9 – 4.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −3 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Trey Gibson: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +21 Elo | SEA 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 14th of 3015–16 | Road vs home | 19–1510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 30 |
| 6th of 301524 | Elo rating | 148819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–38 | 31–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–34 | 16–18 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 15–17 |
| Overs–unders | 30–33–3 | 37–26–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–13 BAL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 18.