Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Taylor WardBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane BazPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Yohendrick PinangoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Valenzuela homered to right (388 feet).4–6
- 6Lukes reached on infield single to second, Giménez scored.4–5
- 6Giménez doubled to right, Okamoto scored.4–4
- 6Okamoto singled to left, Clement scored.4–3
- 6Valenzuela grounded out to shortstop, Sánchez scored, Clement to second.4–2
- 6Pinango homered to right (423 feet).4–1
- 5Ward homered to left (380 feet), Alexander scored.4–0
- 5Alexander doubled to center, Holliday scored.2–0
- 5Cowser homered to right center (400 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 56%
- ML BAL +118 / TOR -143
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 55.4%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -128
- BAL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.7 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +4 | BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +38 Elo | TOR 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–19 | Road vs home | 18–149th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 19th of 301490 | Elo rating | 15159th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–34 | 34–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–18 | 14–21 |
| Underdog | 15–16 | 20–10 |
| Overs–unders | 36–26–3 | 32–30–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 26–19 TOR in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 45.