Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
MLB games
Updated

Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, Tigers.TV, Mariners.TV

Away

Mariners

34-32

4–5

at

Home

Tigers

27-39

SEA 47%DET 53%

You didn't pick this one.

Comerica Park · MLB.TV, Tigers.TV, Mariners.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.

DET75%50%75%SEAStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Mariners
  • Cole YoungBatting2-5, 1 RBI
  • Luis CastilloPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Tigers
  • Kevin McGonigleBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Jack FlahertyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K

Scoring summary

  • 9McGonigle singled to right, McKinstry scored and Pérez scored.4–5
  • 7Pérez tripled to right, Torkelson scored and McKinstry scored.4–3
  • 7Arozarena singled to right, Rodríguez scored.4–1
  • 6Emerson hit by pitch, Naylor scored, Wisdom to second, Arozarena to third.3–1
  • 6Naylor doubled to right, Rodríguez scored.2–1
  • 4McGonigle homered to right (420 feet).1–1
  • 3Young singled to right, Emerson scored.1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Tigers 53%

Toss-upHit
SEA 47%DET 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
DET 53%
ML SEA +102 / DET -123
Pre-line forecast
DET 49%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DET 47%
Ratings vs. market
−6.0 pts
DET: Elo 46.7%, market 52.7%
Fair odds
DET -111
SEA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
SEA 4.1 – 4.4 DET
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorSEADETWhy
Team rating15251485Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−10−10SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsSEA +23 EloSEA 53.3%
Market-implied ratingsSEA 51.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastSEA 51.3%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDET 52.7%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers compared, with each team's league rank
SEAStatDET
18th of 304.2Runs scored3.928th of 30
5th of 303.8Runs allowed4.311th of 30
5th of 30+0.5Margin−0.423rd of 30
1st of 308–2Last 105–511th of 30
13th of 3015–15Road vs home15–1519th of 30
24th of 301495Opponent Elo150015th of 30
6th of 301525Elo rating148520th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MarinersTigers
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonSEADET
Run line27–3830–35
Last 105–57–3
Favorite20–3412–22
Underdog7–418–13
Overs–unders29–33–328–33–4
Overs–unders, last 105–54–5–1

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

SEA 12–13 DET in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 25.