Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Padres- Freddy FerminBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fermin singled to center, Taylor scored.2–6
- 8Taylor singled to left, Bogaerts scored and Bowen scored.2–5
- 7Taylor hit sacrifice bunt, Sheets scored, Bowen to second.2–3
- 7Sheets doubled to left, Bogaerts scored.2–2
- 6Arroyo hit sacrifice fly to center, Marte scored.2–1
- 5Stewart singled to center, Bleday scored.1–1
- 3Fermin homered to left center (376 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 56%
- ML CIN +118 / SD -142
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- SD: Elo 55.4%, market 56.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -128
- CIN +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.5 – 4.0 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −1 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +37 Elo | SD 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 56.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.830th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 15th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 17–1822nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301482 | Elo rating | 150812th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–31 | 31–33 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–15 | 12–22 |
| Underdog | 23–16 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 39–24–1 | 25–37–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 9–9 SD in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.