New York Mets at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Carson BengeBatting5-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Padres- Freddy FerminBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fermin doubled to left, Taylor scored.7–3
- 8Benge tripled to right, Baty scored.7–2
- 6Benge homered to right center (389 feet).6–2
- 6Melendez homered to right center (398 feet).5–2
- 5Fermin homered to left center (404 feet), Taylor scored.4–2
- 5Ewing sacrificed into double play, right to right to third, Bichette scored, Soto thrown out at third.4–0
- 5Young singled to center, Benge scored, Soto to second, Bichette to third.3–0
- 2Semien homered to left (360 feet).2–0
- 1Soto grounded out to second, Benge scored, Bichette to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 51%
- ML NYM -114 / SD -106
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 44.3%, market 50.9%
- Fair odds
- NYM -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.8 – 3.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +7 | NYM: Huascar Brazoban: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +40 Elo | SD 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 50.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.830th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3013–21 | Road vs home | 17–1719th of 30 |
| 30th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 149227th of 30 |
| 16th of 301495 | Elo rating | 151110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–35 | 31–32 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–24 | 12–21 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 27–31–6 | 24–37–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 11–10 SD in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.