Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter DobbinsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Scott II walked, Winn scored, Crooks to second, Fermín to third.3–10
- 6Crooks walked, Torres scored, Fermín to second, Winn to third.3–9
- 6Fermín reached on infield single to shortstop, Burleson scored, Winn to second, Torres to third.3–8
- 6Winn hit by pitch, Herrera scored, Torres to second, Burleson to third.3–7
- 6Herrera singled to right, Nootbaar scored.3–6
- 6Nootbaar doubled to center, Scott II scored.3–5
- 5Walker doubled to center, Burleson scored.3–4
- 3Burleson homered to right center (387 feet).3–3
- 1Burleson scored on Singer wild pitch, Winn to second on wild pitch by Singer, Torres to third on wild pitch by Singer.3–2
- 1Burleson scored on Singer wild pitch, Winn to second on wild pitch by Singer, Torres to third on wild pitch by Singer.3–2
- 1Herrera scored on error, Torres safe at first on error by first baseman Stewart, Burleson to second. Cincinnati Reds challenged call on the field was upheld3–1
- 1Suárez singled to left, Stewart scored.3–0
- 1Stewart doubled to center, Steer scored and Dunn scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 56%
- ML CIN +119 / STL -144
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- STL: Elo 54.4%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -129
- CIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.2 – 4.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | 0 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +30 Elo | STL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 13th of 3015–14 | Road vs home | 16–1619th of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 15074th of 30 |
| 19th of 301487 | Elo rating | 148621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–29 | 36–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–15 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 22–14 | 30–16 |
| Overs–unders | 37–23–1 | 25–31–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 20–21 STL in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 41.