Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Winn homered to left (384 feet).2–1
- 5Pederson singled to center, Jansen scored, Lopez to third.2–0
- 4Duran doubled to left, Nimmo scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 54%
- ML TEX -131 / STL +109
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- TEX: Elo 49.7%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.9 – 3.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +6 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +2 Elo | STL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 19th of 3013–18 | Road vs home | 15–1417th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15074th of 30 |
| 14th of 301506 | Elo rating | 148819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–33 | 34–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–21 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 29–16 |
| Overs–unders | 24–30–5 | 24–30–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 5–4 STL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.