Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pederson tripled to right, Foscue scored and Higashioka scored.3–5
- 6Velázquez singled to right, Walker scored.1–5
- 5Saggese tripled to right, Fermín scored.1–4
- 3Burleson doubled to right, Velázquez scored and Walker scored.1–3
- 3Jung singled to center, Higashioka scored.1–1
- 1Burleson singled to right, Walker scored, Velázquez to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 50%
- ML TEX -108 / STL -112
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- STL: Elo 49.5%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -102
- TEX +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.0 – 4.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | 0 | TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +4 Elo | TEX 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 15–1622nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15084th of 30 |
| 13th of 301509 | Elo rating | 148519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–34 | 35–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–22 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 30–16 |
| Overs–unders | 25–31–5 | 25–31–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 7–4 STL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.