Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Matt McLainBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nootbaar homered to right center (433 feet), Fermín scored.5–6
- 5Walker homered to right center (401 feet).5–4
- 4McLain homered to left (381 feet), Dunn scored.5–3
- 3Steer hit sacrifice fly to left, Myers scored.3–3
- 3Bleday reaches first on fielding error by first baseman Burleson, Marte and McLain scored on error, Bleday to second, Myers to third on error.2–3
- 2Winn singled to center, Fermín scored and Torres scored, Scott II to third.0–3
- 2Scott II singled to right, Burleson scored, Torres to second, Fermín to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML CIN +105 / STL -126
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- STL: Elo 53.2%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.4 – 4.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | 0 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +22 Elo | STL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.514th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 14th of 3015–15 | Road vs home | 17–1617th of 30 |
| 28th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15074th of 30 |
| 21st of 301484 | Elo rating | 148919th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–30 | 37–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–15 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 30–16 |
| Overs–unders | 38–23–1 | 26–31–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 20–22 STL in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 42.