Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Matt McLainBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Rhett LowderPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Bryan TorresBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Herrera grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Velázquez scored on fielding error by shortstop McLain, Wetherholt to second, Scott II to third.3–5
- 8Scott II grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Fermín scored on throwing error by pitcher Moll, Scott II to first on throwing error by pitcher Moll, Scott II second, Velázquez safe at third on er3–4
- 7McLain homered to center (405 feet).3–3
- 5Torres homered to right (368 feet), Walker scored.2–3
- 5Walker doubled to center, Burleson scored.2–1
- 3Stephenson homered to right (373 feet).2–0
- 3McLain homered to center (411 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 58%
- ML CIN +128 / STL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- STL: Elo 57.3%, market 58.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -139
- CIN +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.4 – 5.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +8 | CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +51 Elo | STL 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 58.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.113th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 14th of 3015–16 | Road vs home | 18–1616th of 30 |
| 28th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 15075th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301483 | Elo rating | 149018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–30 | 37–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–15 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 30–16 |
| Overs–unders | 39–23–1 | 27–31–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 20–23 STL in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 43.