Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting4-6
- Lucas GiolitoPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Stewart homered to center (407 feet), Dunn scored.5–3
- 10Taylor singled to center, Sheets scored.3–3
- 10Suárez doubled to left, Steer scored.3–2
- 3Machado singled to left, Merrill scored.2–2
- 3Merrill tripled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.2–1
- 3Steer grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Bleday scored on fielding error by pitcher Giolito, Lowe to second, Stewart to third.2–0
- 2Stephenson singled to center, McLain scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 55%
- ML CIN -136 / SD +113
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 45.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -123
- SD +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.7 – 3.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +4 | CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +35 Elo | SD 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.830th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 15th of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 18–1819th of 30 |
| 28th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 30 |
| 24th of 301480 | Elo rating | 151010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–32 | 32–33 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–15 | 13–22 |
| Underdog | 23–17 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 40–24–1 | 26–37–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 9–10 SD in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.