Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cole YoungBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Rutschman singled to left, Ward scored.5–7
- 4Rodríguez singled to right, Emerson scored, Young to second.5–6
- 4Canzone homered to right center (401 feet).4–6
- 4Raley homered to right (388 feet), Arozarena scored.3–6
- 3Alonso homered to left center (439 feet), Rutschman scored.1–6
- 3Rutschman doubled to right, Henderson scored and Ward scored.1–4
- 3Holliday scored on Woo wild pitch, Henderson to second on wild pitch by Woo, Ward to third on wild pitch by Woo.1–2
- 3Holliday scored on Woo wild pitch, Henderson to second on wild pitch by Woo, Ward to third on wild pitch by Woo.1–2
- 3Cowser homered to left center (416 feet).1–1
- 1Young homered to right center (364 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML SEA -114 / BAL -106
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.1%, market 50.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +5 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +15 Elo | SEA 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 50.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 11th of 3017–17 | Road vs home | 20–1714th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 6th of 301524 | Elo rating | 148819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–39 | 32–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–34 | 17–19 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders | 31–34–4 | 38–27–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 7–14 BAL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 21.