Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Josh NaylorBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Naylor singled to right, Wisdom scored.2–7
- 8Rodríguez grounded out to second, Mastrobuoni scored, Wisdom to third.1–7
- 7Holliday homered to right center (391 feet), Ward scored, Alonso scored and Taveras scored.0–7
- 6Alexander hit a ground rule double, Taveras scored.0–3
- 6Taveras doubled to center, Cowser scored.0–2
- 6Alonso homered to center (402 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML SEA -115 / BAL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 51.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 4.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +6 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +12 Elo | SEA 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 11th of 3017–16 | Road vs home | 19–1716th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 5th of 301527 | Elo rating | 148621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–38 | 31–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–34 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders | 31–34–3 | 38–27–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 7–13 BAL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 20.