Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tatis Jr. homered to left (360 feet).4–5
- 8Taylor singled to center, Bowen scored.4–4
- 8Sheets doubled to right, Merrill scored.4–3
- 8Suárez homered to left (365 feet).4–2
- 7Bleday homered to right (391 feet).3–2
- 5Tatis Jr. singled to right, Durán scored.2–2
- 4Steer homered to left (387 feet), Bleday scored.2–1
- 1Machado doubled to left, Merrill scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 61%
- ML CIN +143 / SD -173
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- SD: Elo 58.1%, market 60.6%
- Fair odds
- SD -154
- CIN +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 4.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −6 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +56 Elo | SD 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 60.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.830th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 15th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 18–1921st of 30 |
| 28th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301482 | Elo rating | 150811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–32 | 32–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 13–22 |
| Underdog | 23–17 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 41–24–1 | 27–37–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 10–10 SD in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.