Seattle Mariners at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Colt EmersonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tena singled to center, Crews scored, Tena to second.3–8
- 7Abrams stole home.3–8
- 7Abrams singled to left, Chaparro scored, Mead to second.3–6
- 5García Jr. homered to right center (408 feet), Wood scored.3–5
- 5Emerson homered to right (386 feet), Garver scored.3–3
- 5Garver singled to center, Mastrobuoni scored.1–3
- 1Crews singled to left, Lile scored.0–3
- 1Lile tripled to right, Abrams scored.0–2
- 1Abrams singled to left, García Jr. scored, Abrams to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 51%
- ML SEA -105 / WSH -115
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 45.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −7 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +34 Elo | SEA 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.5 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 11th of 3018–18 | Road vs home | 12–2129th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15082nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301526 | Elo rating | 147027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–40 | 42–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–34 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 38–20 |
| Overs–unders | 33–34–4 | 43–23–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–6 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.