Seattle Mariners at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Riley CornelioPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Naylor homered to right (383 feet).10–2
- 8Crews homered to center (440 feet).9–2
- 8Canzone homered to right center (395 feet).9–1
- 5Raley singled to right, Rodríguez scored and Robles scored.8–1
- 5Young scored on Cornelio wild pitch, Robles to second on wild pitch by Cornelio, Rodríguez to third on wild pitch by Cornelio.6–1
- 5Young scored on Cornelio wild pitch, Robles to second on wild pitch by Cornelio, Rodríguez to third on wild pitch by Cornelio.6–1
- 4Wood homered to right (416 feet).5–1
- 2Emerson homered to center (407 feet), Pereda scored.5–0
- 2Mastrobuoni hit sacrifice fly to right, Canzone scored.3–0
- 2Canzone tripled to center, Arozarena scored and Raley scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 56%
- ML SEA -144 / WSH +120
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.7%, market 56.5%
- Fair odds
- SEA -130
- WSH +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.0 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +5 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Zack Littell: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +33 Elo | SEA 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.329th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 12th of 3017–18 | Road vs home | 12–2029th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15083rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301523 | Elo rating | 147327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–40 | 42–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–34 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 38–19 |
| Overs–unders | 32–34–4 | 42–23–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–6 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.