Seattle Mariners at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cole YoungBatting1-4
- Emerson HancockPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Crews grounded out to shortstop, Wood scored.1–10
- 8Wood doubled to center, Young scored.1–9
- 8Young doubled to left, Vivas scored.1–8
- 7Ruiz homered to right center (406 feet).1–7
- 4Vivas grounded into fielder's choice to first, Nuñez scored.1–6
- 4Nuñez singled to center, Ruiz scored and Lile scored.1–5
- 4Lile doubled to right, Abrams scored, Ruiz to third.1–3
- 4Ruiz singled to left, Crews scored, Abrams to second.1–2
- 1Wood homered to right center (413 feet).1–1
- 1Naylor doubled to center, Young scored on fielding error by center fielder Young.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML SEA -132 / WSH +109
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.4 – 5.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +16 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: PJ Poulin: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +18 Elo | SEA 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.329th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 11th of 3018–19 | Road vs home | 13–2129th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15092nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301523 | Elo rating | 147327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–41 | 43–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–34 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 38–20 |
| Overs–unders | 34–34–4 | 44–23–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–7 WSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.