Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Samuel BasalloBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Raleigh singled to center, Emerson scored and Robles scored, Crawford to second.1–3
- 3Rodríguez singled to left, Mastrobuoni scored, Crawford to second.1–1
- 1Basallo singled to right, Ward scored, Alonso to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML BAL +128 / SEA -154
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.7%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -138
- BAL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.4 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +7 | BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +47 Elo | SEA 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.35th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 3012–20 | Road vs home | 19–1612th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 18th of 301488 | Elo rating | 15196th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–39 | 31–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–21 | 22–35 |
| Underdog | 15–18 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 41–28–4 | 35–34–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 15–7 SEA in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 22.