San Diego Padres at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Samad TaylorBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trey GibsonPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Machado homered to center (429 feet).9–3
- 8Durán homered to left (387 feet).8–3
- 7Alonso doubled to left, Henderson scored.7–3
- 7Sheets homered to right (355 feet).7–2
- 5Solak hit sacrifice fly to right, Bogaerts scored.6–2
- 5Taylor singled to right, Machado scored, Sheets to second, Bogaerts to third.5–2
- 1Taveras tripled to right, Basallo scored.4–2
- 1Alonso homered to right center (392 feet).4–1
- 1Taylor homered to center (407 feet), Bogaerts scored.4–0
- 1Merrill homered to left center (372 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML SD +100 / BAL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 49.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- SD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.2 – 5.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −5 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Trey Gibson: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +5 Elo | SD 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 10th of 3015–13 | Road vs home | 22–1710th of 30 |
| 27th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 13th of 301507 | Elo rating | 149217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–36 | 34–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–23 | 19–19 |
| Underdog | 19–13 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders | 29–37–2 | 40–27–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 4–6 BAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.