San Diego Padres at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Rodolfo DuranBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Jeremiah JacksonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tatis Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Wagner scored. San Diego Padres challenged call on the field was overturned5–2
- 7Henderson singled to right, Alexander scored.4–2
- 7Durán homered to center (432 feet), Wagner scored.4–1
- 5Jackson homered to right (365 feet).2–1
- 2Tatis Jr. singled to center, Durán scored.2–0
- 2Durán doubled to center, Taylor scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML SD +114 / BAL -137
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 48.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -124
- SD +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.0 – 5.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −9 | SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +13 Elo | SD 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 9th of 3016–13 | Road vs home | 22–1811th of 30 |
| 28th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 11th of 301510 | Elo rating | 149020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–36 | 34–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–23 | 19–20 |
| Underdog | 20–13 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders | 30–37–2 | 41–27–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 5–6 BAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.