Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cole YoungBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting2-5
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Young homered to right (382 feet), Raley scored.3–2
- 4Raleigh homered to right center (393 feet).1–2
- 3Gonzales reached on infield single to third, Lowe scored on throwing error by third baseman Crawford, Reynolds safe at third on error.0–2
- 2Ozuna singled to center, Rodríguez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML SEA -131 / PIT +108
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.6%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -118
- PIT +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.7 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −5 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +4 Elo | SEA 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.28th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 13th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 20–1918th of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301516 | Elo rating | 149020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–45 | 36–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 25–38 | 16–26 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 37–38–4 | 44–31–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 6–3 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.