Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Nate EatonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Payton TollePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Canzone grounded out to shortstop, Rodríguez scored, Refsnyder to second.1–3
- 5Young singled to left, We. Wilson scored.1–2
- 3Eaton homered to left (409 feet).1–1
- 2Canzone homered to left (348 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML BOS +113 / SEA -136
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -123
- BOS +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +10 | BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +46 Elo | SEA 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.26th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–729th of 30 |
| 11th of 3019–18 | Road vs home | 21–1916th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 30 |
| 11th of 301509 | Elo rating | 15158th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–42 | 33–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–28 | 24–38 |
| Underdog | 18–14 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 33–38–3 | 37–37–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 12–9 SEA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.