Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trey YesavagePitching7.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Isiah Kiner-FalefaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Valenzuela doubled to left, Clement scored.4–3
- 8Durbin homered to left center (386 feet).3–3
- 8Kiner-Falefa homered to left (360 feet).3–2
- 7Contreras grounded out to shortstop, Rafaela scored.3–1
- 7Lukes homered to right center (392 feet).3–0
- 2Giménez hit sacrifice fly to left, Okamoto scored.2–0
- 1Guerrero Jr. homered to center (410 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 56%
- ML TOR +119 / BOS -143
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.6%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -129
- TOR +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +12 | TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +25 Elo | BOS 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–729th of 30 |
| 19th of 3015–20 | Road vs home | 12–2430th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15074th of 30 |
| 8th of 301516 | Elo rating | 150512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–36 | 30–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–23 | 14–27 |
| Underdog | 21–13 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders | 36–34–4 | 32–36–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 23–21 BOS in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 44.