Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Contreras doubled to center, Abreu scored.1–10
- 8Rafaela homered to left center (374 feet), Wong scored.1–9
- 7Abreu homered to center (421 feet).1–7
- 5Durbin hit sacrifice fly to center, Contreras scored.1–6
- 5Abreu scored on error, Contreras safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Jung, Contreras safe at second on error.1–5
- 5Abreu doubled to left, Rafaela scored.1–4
- 5Rafaela doubled to left, Gasper scored.1–3
- 1Contreras homered to center (379 feet).1–2
- 1Abreu hit sacrifice fly to left, Rafaela scored.1–1
- 1Langford singled to left, Pederson scored, Jung to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 56%
- ML TEX +116 / BOS -140
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.3%, market 55.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -126
- TEX +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.0 – 4.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +8 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +23 Elo | BOS 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 15th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 10–2130th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15074th of 30 |
| 10th of 301511 | Elo rating | 150613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–37 | 28–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 12–25 |
| Underdog | 18–13 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders | 26–35–7 | 29–34–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 9–10 BOS in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.