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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, YES, NESN

Away

Red Sox

27-35

5–3

at

Home

Yankees

37-26

BOS 44%NYY 56%

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Yankee Stadium · MLB.TV, YES, NESN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.

NYY75%50%75%BOSStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Red Sox
  • Willson ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Sonny GrayPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Yankees
  • Ben RiceBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Ryan WeathersPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K

Scoring summary

  • 5Grisham homered to right (424 feet).5–3
  • 5Contreras homered to left (419 feet), Abreu scored.5–2
  • 4Jones doubled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored.3–2
  • 4Monasterio homered to left (408 feet).3–1
  • 3Contreras reached on infield single to pitcher, Duran scored, Rafaela to third.2–1
  • 3Abreu grounded out to shortstop, Wong scored, Rafaela to second, Duran to third.1–1
  • 1Rice homered to right (377 feet).0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Yankees 56%

LeanMiss
BOS 44%NYY 56%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
NYY 56%
ML BOS +119 / NYY -144
Pre-line forecast
NYY 58%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NYY 57%
Ratings vs. market
+0.9 pts
NYY: Elo 57.3%, market 56.4%
Fair odds
NYY -129
BOS +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
BOS 3.7 – 4.3 NYY
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBOSNYYWhy
Team rating15111555Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+9−3BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNYY +51 EloNYY 57.3%
Market-implied ratingsNYY 57.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYY 57.7%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNYY 56.4%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees compared, with each team's league rank
BOSStatNYY
27th of 304.0Runs scored5.15th of 30
9th of 304.1Runs allowed3.64th of 30
13th of 30−0.1Margin+1.53rd of 30
21st of 304–6Last 107–33rd of 30
11th of 3016–14Road vs home18–116th of 30
7th of 301505Opponent Elo149722nd of 30
12th of 301511Elo rating15553rd of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Red SoxYankees
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBOSNYY
Run line26–3533–29
Last 105–55–5
Favorite12–2528–27
Underdog14–105–2
Overs–unders28–31–227–31–4
Overs–unders, last 106–3–16–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BOS 25–20 NYY in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 45.