Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Rhys HoskinsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Jose CaballeroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to center, Goldschmidt scored.5–4
- 8Hoskins singled to left, Ramírez scored, Manzardo to third.5–3
- 6Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to center, Rice scored.4–3
- 6Ramírez homered to right (363 feet).4–2
- 4Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: José Caballero homers (364 feet) on a fly ball to left field.3–2
- 4Hoskins homered to left (382 feet), Ramírez scored.3–1
- 2Chisholm Jr. homered to right (409 feet).1–1
- 2Manzardo homered to right (370 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML CLE +113 / NYY -136
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -123
- CLE +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.5 – 4.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +3 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +49 Elo | NYY 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.64th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 5th of 3018–13 | Road vs home | 17–107th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149524th of 30 |
| 8th of 301517 | Elo rating | 15563rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–31 | 33–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 28–25 |
| Underdog | 18–11 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 31–31 | 26–30–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 9–15 NYY in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 24.