Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Paul GoldschmidtBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bazzana doubled to right, Kwan, Martínez, and Schneemann scored.9–4
- 7Ramírez doubled to left, Rocchio scored.6–4
- 5Ramírez doubled to right, Bailey scored, Rocchio to third.5–4
- 5Bazzana hit sacrifice fly to center, Kwan scored.4–4
- 4Goldschmidt singled to right, Caballero scored and Chisholm Jr. scored, Rice to third.3–4
- 4Manzardo homered to right center (367 feet), Ramírez scored.3–2
- 3Goldschmidt homered to left (386 feet), Rice scored.1–2
- 3Rocchio hit sacrifice fly to center, Bailey scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 64%
- ML CLE +163 / NYY -199
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 61.0%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -175
- CLE +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.1 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +18 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +77 Elo | NYY 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 63.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.73rd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 8th of 3017–13 | Road vs home | 17–93rd of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149523rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301513 | Elo rating | 15593rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–31 | 33–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 28–24 |
| Underdog | 17–11 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 30–31 | 25–30–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–15 NYY in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.
- Jun 5CLE 0 @ NYY 4Picked NYY 71%Hit
- Jun 4CLE 4 @ NYY 0Picked NYY 64%Miss
- Jun 3CLE 2 @ NYY 3Picked NYY 65%Hit
- Apr 23NYY 5 @ CLE 1Picked NYY 60%Hit
- Apr 22NYY 2 @ CLE 3Picked CLE 51%Hit
- Apr 21NYY 4 @ CLE 6Picked NYY 52%Miss
- Oct 19NYY 5 @ CLE 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 55%Hit
- Oct 18NYY 8 @ CLE 6PlayoffsPicked NYY 52%Hit