Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Stuart FairchildBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting2-4
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7McMahon singled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored.1–2
- 4Chisholm Jr. sacrificed into double play, left to third, Goldschmidt scored, Bellinger thrown out at third.1–1
- 4Fairchild singled to left, Ramírez scored, Hoskins to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML CLE +135 / NYY -163
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 58.9%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -146
- CLE +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.1 – 4.9 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −2 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +63 Elo | NYY 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.54th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 5th of 3019–13 | Road vs home | 17–117th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301518 | Elo rating | 15553rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–31 | 33–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 28–26 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 32–31 | 27–30–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 10–15 NYY in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 25.