Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting2-4
- Michael WachaPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Carter singled to right, Duran scored, Burger thrown out at third.4–2
- 4Misner singled to right, Caglianone scored.3–2
- 4Massey grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Pasquantino scored, Thomas out at second, Caglianone to third.3–1
- 3Seager homered to right (391 feet).3–0
- 2Díaz reached on bunt single to third, Duran scored, Burger to second.2–0
- 1Nimmo doubled to right, Seager scored, Nimmo out at third on runner's fielder's choice.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 52%
- ML TEX -101 / KC -120
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- KC: Elo 50.5%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.2 – 5.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | 0 | TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +3 Elo | KC 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 16th of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 16–1823rd of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 12th of 301509 | Elo rating | 148422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–37 | 36–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 11–17 |
| Underdog | 17–13 | 25–15 |
| Overs–unders | 26–34–7 | 30–36–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 15–9 KC in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.