Cleveland Guardians at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Travis BazzanaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Seager homered to left center (399 feet), Langford scored.2–3
- 6Higashioka homered to left (428 feet).2–1
- 4Hedges singled to center, Kwan scored.2–0
- 1Bazzana homered to right (385 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 54%
- ML CLE -131 / TEX +108
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 50.9%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -118
- TEX +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 3.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −14 | CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +6 Elo | CLE 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.18th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 5th of 3019–14 | Road vs home | 15–1314th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 8th of 301517 | Elo rating | 150814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–31 | 27–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 12–22 |
| Underdog | 20–11 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders | 32–32 | 25–31–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 9–9 TEX in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 18.