Cleveland Guardians at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-3
- Joey CantilloPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting4-5, 3 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duran singled to right, Jung scored, Carter to third.0–10
- 8Carter singled to right, Díaz scored, Jung to second.0–9
- 6Helman homered to left (378 feet).0–8
- 4Langford homered to left (381 feet).0–7
- 3Burger reached on infield single to pitcher, Duran scored.0–6
- 3Duran doubled to left, Foscue scored and Nimmo scored.0–5
- 3Jung homered to right (382 feet).0–3
- 1Foscue homered to left (417 feet), Jung scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 56%
- ML CLE +119 / TEX -144
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.0%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -129
- CLE +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.2 – 3.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +7 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +7 Elo | TEX 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 6th of 3020–15 | Road vs home | 16–1416th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 8th of 301519 | Elo rating | 150613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–32 | 28–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–21 | 12–23 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders | 32–34 | 25–33–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 10–10 TEX in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 20.