Cleveland Guardians at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Brayan RocchioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-4
- Jack LeiterPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bazzana grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Kwan scored, Rocchio out at second.6–0
- 5Schneemann singled to center, Manzardo scored.5–0
- 5Manzardo doubled to right, DeLauter scored.4–0
- 5DeLauter singled to right, Ramírez scored.3–0
- 5Rocchio homered to right (387 feet).2–0
- 4Ramírez homered to right center (389 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML CLE +104 / TEX -126
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.6 – 3.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +2 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +29 Elo | TEX 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.29th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 7th of 3019–15 | Road vs home | 16–1311th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 8th of 301516 | Elo rating | 150912th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–32 | 28–35 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–21 | 12–22 |
| Underdog | 20–11 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders | 32–33 | 25–32–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 9–10 TEX in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 19.